What will Jimmer Fredette’s NBA career be like?

Will his frame enable him to become a big, scoring point guard like Chauncey Billups?

Will his shooting ability allow him to emulate Steve Nash’s success and become a premier point guard?

Will his college success translate to the NBA immediately a la Stephen Curry in 2009-2010?

It is almost impossible to project the future NBA careers of any rookie in the league, but with Jimmer it is even more difficult.  He could be out of the league faster than you can say Rafael Araujo, he could become a bigger, better Eddie House, or he could transform into an all-star point guard.

There is much to speculate and many differing opinions but as I contemplated this question, I immediately began to think of players that either reminded me of Jimmer, or that Jimmer could ultimately become like.

The three players that came to mind most are mentioned above: Chauncey Billups, Steve Nash, and Stephen Curry.

Why these three?

Chauncey’s size (6’3” 210) and his playing style have always reminded me of Jimmer.  Jimmer (6’2” 195) is built much like Chauncey is and his style of play, score first, reminds me of Chauncey as well.  While they both are more than sufficient at creating for others, it isn’t always the first thing on their minds.  Although Jimmer is not as athletic as Chauncey was coming out of college, the ability to hit the big shot and ice the game at the free throw line will allow Jimmer to play minutes late in tight games.

Jimmer is not currently the playmaker that Steve Nash is but his shooting ability seems to be on par with the two-time MVP.  Steve (6’3” 178) doesn’t have the same build as Jimmer or Billups but he is tall for a PG and this allows him to get his shot off in difficult places.  We will look at the numbers in more detail later on but Nash proves that someone with similar defensive liabilities can find a place in the league if they can excel on the offensive end of the court.

Stephen Curry (6’3” 185) is also a player that Jimmer should emulate.  Their stats from college are very similar; especially Steph’s freshmen and sophomore years where he was not asked to make as many plays for others.  Stephen was an elite college scorer and proved that he could get his shot off in the NBA.  Jimmer should be able to prove that he can get his shot off as well with his quick elevation and release.  Jimmer may not be as creative as Steph is passing the ball but I don’t see why he can’t have the Curry-like success scoring the ball his rookie year.

Before we look as those three players’ NBA numbers, let’s take a look back at their college numbers and compare them to Jimmer:

Jimmer and Chauncey’s career Minutes per Point are almost identical.  They both scored a point every 1.8 minutes (or 1 minute 48 seconds).  In Jimmer’s last two seasons he scored the ball at an even higher rate than Chauncey did.  Chauncey proved to be more of a playmaker than Jimmer but if you compare Jimmer’s junior year, when he wasn’t asked to shoot every time down, his 6.62 Minutes per Assist are identical to Chauncey’s career MPA numbers.  Jimmer also was able to shoot the ball better than Billups from the field, the three-point line and the free throw line.  Chauncey’s numbers at Colorado were very similar to Jimmer’s at BYU.

Both Jimmer and Steve played four seasons in college at smaller schools so there numbers are the most comparable.  Not surprisingly Jimmer scored the ball more frequently than Steve did while Nash was setting up his teammates more than Jimmer was.  Their minutes per steal both come in at one steal per 24 minutes played which also is no surprise, as defense is not a strength for each of these players.  Jimmer shot the ball slightly better from the field, slight worse from three, and slightly better from the free throw line but the differences are negligible.

Stephen and Jimmer both lit it up in the college ranks.  When you compare their last college seasons you could easily argue that Stephen had a better year.  He scored more frequently (every 1.18 minutes to Jimmer’s 1.24), assisted more often (6.02 to 8.33), created more turnovers (steal every 13.48 minutes to Jimmer’s 27.54) and had a higher assist to turnover ratio (1.50 to 1.22).  They almost shot identical percentages from the field and Jimmer barely outshot Steph from the three-point line and the free throw line.  Even though Curry had a slight edge in most of the categories the similarities in their seasons are certainly evident.  NBA scouts were highly critical of both players throughout their college days but they still ended up in the lottery.

Overall, Jimmer’s college numbers stack up well with Chauncey, Steve and Stephen; even surpassing them in certain categories.  Now, are a player’s college stats a clear indicator of how they will play in the NBA?  Of course not, but it is something that will help us make a more informed speculation when we attempt to project Jimmer’s future.

Check back in when we analyze how the NBA careers of these three players can help us paint a more clear picture of who Jimmer might become and what types of goals he should shoot for.