In part 1 of our Projecting Jimmer series we looked back at the college careers of NBA players that we think Jimmer could play like this year.

In part 2 we will look at those same three NBA players – Chauncey Billups, Stephen Curry, Steve Nash – and their NBA careers to project how Jimmer will stack up.

Jimmer’s college numbers were very comparable to these three players and we will use the following categories from their NBA careers to project Jimmer: rookie season, first 30+ minutes per game season, best season and career stats.  The main emphasis will be on the first two categories as those are the most similar to Jimmer’s current situation.

All three of these players played varying minutes their rookie campaigns which is why we will focus on “minutes per” instead of per game averages.  It is unclear as to whether Jimmer will play 15, 25 or 35 minutes per game this season but when breaking the stats down to a “minutes per” basis, it doesn’t matter.

These three players combined to average a point every 2.57 minutes, an assist every 6.08 minutes and a steal every 25.12 minutes.  They also combined to shoot 42.0% from the field, 39.5% from three, 85.3% from the free-throw line and had a 1.97 assist to turnover ratio.

Does it seem out of the realm of possibility for Jimmer to average 24.8 mpg, 10.7 ppg 4.0 apg, 1.2 spg while shooting the above percentages?  Not at all.  In fact, JimmerStats projects that he will surpass some of those numbers.

We project that Jimmer will finish the season playing 30 minutes per game.  He played 26 in his first game last night against the Lakers and he is one injury away from having to play a larger role.  That role will most likely increase regardless of injury as he gains valuable experience and becomes more comfortable running the offense.

Steve Nash only played 10.5 mpg his rookie season while Chauncey played 27.7.  To compare how they did when they were both given over 30 minutes per game (where we project Jimmer to end up) we’ve added the above graph.

As the minutes went up, the production went down: minutes per point, assist and steal increased and in fact, the only two categories that improved were the players combined free-throw percentages and their assist to turnover ratio.  Jimmer seems ready and prepared to play effectively in bursts this season but can he keep up that effectiveness over longer stints?  We may have the answer to that if his playing time plays out like we think.

Can you see Jimmer averaging 18 and 8 a few years down the road while shooting 48-43-91?  We don’t think it will happen this year but it also cannot be ruled out.

Not only is it interesting to look at these stats in this format but it is also beneficial to our discussion of how to project Jimmer.  Now that we have a foundation of similar players’ stats to look out, we can more adequately set goals for Jimmer and project how his rookie year will play out.